KepCorp Consolidating in a Triangle

KepCorp is one stock that is quite difficult to analyse as there is a short term bullish and bearish view and each have about the same probability. Personally I would stay clear of this counter for the time being until clearer signals emerge. Medium term wise, I’m bearish on KepCorp.

Primary View

Looks like KepCorp is consolidating in a Triangle. As we know, Triangles take place either in wave 4, B or X in a move. Also, Triangles are either the last move or precedes the last move. The move up from 4 Oct 2011 is quite choppy and it is suitably labelled as wave W. The Triangle is labelled as wave X. With this we can expect the next move to be wave Y. Assuming that Y = W, we have 11.00 as the target. By measuring the widest part of the Triangle, we get another target which is 10.55.

In order for this count to hold, KepCorp would need to break the Triangle to the top side and move steadily above.

11 Nov 2011 KepCorp Primary Elliott Wave Chart

Alternate View

The Alternate view is that Intermediate wave (2) has ended on 31 Oct 2011 at 9.74 and Intermediate wave (3) has begun. Minuette wave (i) has completed and Minuette (ii) of the subwaves of Intermediate wave (3) is in progress to be followed soon by Minuette (iii). The reason why this is the alternate view and not primary view is because the X wave is too short in time and price though it is valid and possible.

11 Nov 2011 KepCorp Alternate Elliott Wave Chart

 

Asian Market Mid Week Review 10 Nov 2011

Singapore’s Straits Times Index and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index Mid Week Review

This review is for both the Singapore’s Straits Times Index as well as Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index as both are moving in tandem and are closely coupled with the US Market.

I believe the S&P 500 sell down in the last session is just the beginning of further selling and it could go as low as 1040 from the current 1230 points. Please see the Review of S&P 500 for further details. Both the HSI as well as the STI are expected to follow as well. It is already evident from today’s sell down in this two indexes. Point to note though is that HSI stopped short of 19k which has been providing support and resistance recently. I had published a post titled Battle of 19k and take a look at that post for details of the importance of this level. If the HSI breaks this level to the down side, this could turn into a huge sell down and HSI could go as low as 15700 region. If the 19k holds, the up trend may continue for a while but not much longer. So the upside is very limited at current levels.

We are at a point where those who are bullish or are long term investors should remain cautious and probably reduce their holdings and be prepared to buy when the index is at a much lower level. Again I like to highlight that this is my view and not to be taken as investment advice and every investor should do their own analysis and make a decision based on their own risk profile.

I’ll be updating the 2-Year charts for these indexes when I get some time. Maybe over the weekend. So check back to get updated on that.

KepCorp (BN4.SI) Mid Week Review 09 Nov 2011

KepCorp is in an indecisive mode as is most stocks on the Singapore’s Straits Times Index. This is as we know due to the indecision seen on the rest of the world markets. FTSE and DAX has gone down quite a bit in the early hours and if this holds till US opens, S&P 500 could also head lower and that would setup a down in Asian markets in the next session.

Here’s the daily chart of KepCorp and I’d like to draw your attention to the indecisive pattern that developed in end July 11. We are in a similar situation with low volume and narrow trading range. The market is setup for a spike in either direction. Given the current situation, I believe we are in for a sell down on KepCorp which could take it to minimally 8.40 region.

KepCorp Short Term Elliott Wave Count