S&P 500 EOD Review 1 Dec 2011

The move up from 28 Nov 2011 is an impulsive move and it’s been confirmed by the MACD. This means that the Alternate view needs to be upgraded to be the new Primary count. The below chart depicts this change. We are most likely in Subminuette i of Minute [y] which is expected to hit a target of 1371 (if [y] = [w]).

S&P 500 EOD Elliott Wave Chart 1 Dec 2011

But before that, there would be a correction of this move up which could go down to 1218 (38.2% retracement of the move up) or 1207 (61.8% retracement) before turning up. It could also pause here and move higher up. The S&P 500 is sitting right at the apex of the Triangle top which is providing resistance for further upwards surge.

Alternate View

The Alternate View now is that the 1-2-i-ii sell down is panning out. Micro [2] is in progress to be followed by Micro [3].

Fibonacci Confluence

The S&P 500 approached the next Fibonacci Confluence band at 1251 and got turned down.

S&P 500 Daily Fibonacci Chart 1 Dec 2011

S&P 500 Volume

The volume is back to average again.

S&P 500 Daily Volume Chart 1 Dec 2011

 

S&P 500 EOD Review 30 Nov 2011

Finally the volume came in and pushed the S&P 500 up by 4.3%. This spike up changes the earlier Primary count from a basic 1-2 to 1-2-i-ii count which means that wave 3 is going to be much more severe. I have updated the labelling in the chart. I believe that S&P 500 has completed Micro [2] of Subminuette iii in this session. The next expected move is Micro [3] which is 3 of 3 and is expected to be a strong downwards push with a target of 1063 (if [3] = 1.6x[1]). Why do I call for more downside now that the up volume has come in? Well, this kind of volume spikes normally happens at the end of a move. This is a herd buying pattern and we know what usually follows after this.

The target for the Inverted Head and Shoulders has also been met. Note that the S&P 500 is approaching the support resistance line (in blue) which has come into play many times for the past three months.

S&P 500 EOD Elliott Wave Chart 30 Nov 2011

Alternate View

The Alternate view is also strong due to the move up which was quite strong. If the volume is maintained, it could result in further upside. The Alternate view is that this is Subminuette i of a larger move up with a final target of 1370. Subminuette ii is to follow after this.

Either way, the next expected move is a downwards and that would give us clues on the nature of this whole move.

Fibonacci Confluence

The S&P 500 broke through the strong Fibonacci Confluence band (1220 – 1228). After breaking through, it came back down to test the top of the band and closed higher. This is indeed a very bullish move. Let’s see if this holds in next session.

S&P 500 Daily Fibonacci Chart 30 Nov 2011

Volume

As mentioned earlier, the volume spiked and this type of volume is best categorised as final blowoff volume.

S&P 500 Daily Volume Chart 30 Nov 2011

 

S&P 500 EOD Review 28 Nov 2011

A rise on the S&P 500 of about 3% after more than a week of selling. This was expected as we had been anticipating Subminuette iv. The Primary Elliott Wave chart below depicts the move with details.

S&P500 EOD Elliott Wave Chart 28 Nov 2011

The wave so far is unfolding in an impulsive upwards move followed by a correction which looks like an Expanding Triangle. As expanding triangles occur primarily in either 4, B or X positions, we are most likely in Subminuette iv. The next move expected is another impulsive move upwards to 1205 – 1210 region. That would complete the Micro [C] of Subminuette iv. Thereafter, a selldown to complete Subminuette v will resume. Expected target for Subminuette v is 1135 (if v = i) or 1153 (target for the Triangle measured move).

S&P 500 Alternate View

The Alternate view is that the Minute [x] has ended and this is to be followed by Minute [w]. We are in early stages of Minute [w] with Micro [4] of Subminuette i in progress.

 S&P 500 Fibonacci Chart

The move up penetrated the Fibonacci Confluence band at 1184 – 1187 and came back down to test this band. The band now has turned as support. The S&P 500 then move higher from here before closing. This is bullish move. More upside is expected. The next band is at 1210

S&P 500 Daily Fibonacci Chart 28 Nov 2011

S&P 500 Volume

The volume is still weak and although the move is about 3% in price, the volume did not really come in to support. If there is no increase in volume soon, this move will not hold for long.

S&P 500 Daily Volume Chart 28 Nov 2011