S&P 500 EOD Review 6 Dec 2011

It wa another sideways day on the S&P 500. It is looking very toppish. Most likely, Micron (2) has been completed and the next expected move is Micron (3) with a target of 1242. The MACD has clearly turned and will be targetting the zero line. Target for this move is either 1225, 1210 or 1200 with 1210 being the most likely one.

S&P 500 EOD Elliott Wave Chart 6 Dec 2011

Alternate View

Alternate view is that Submicron 1 and 2 has been completed with Submicron 3 beckoning. Either way, the next move expected is a down move.

S&P 500 Fibonacci Confluence

There was no activity near any Fibonacci Confluence. As mentioned in yesterday’s update, the S&P tried to pierce the Fibonacci band at 1252 – 1255 but failed and that is a bullish move. The market came close to the band but did not touch it.

S&P 500 Daily Fibonacci Chart 6 Dec 2011

S&P 500 Volume

The volume is decreasing and this is a sign of indecision as can be seen from the candle stick. The next move would likely break this indecision and a wave 3 of 3 down will fit well in that scenario.

S&P 500 Daily Volume Chart 6 Dec 2011

 

S&P 500 EOD Review 5 Dec 2011

The S&P 500 completed the Subminuette i in an Expanding Triangle. Subminuette ii is likely underway in a zig-zag with Micron (1) of Micro [A] completed. Based on the charts, the target for Subminuette ii is 1223 (38.2% retracement), 1210 (50% retracement) or 1199 (61.8% retracement). Based on the measure move of the Expanding Triangle, the target is 1229. I think the most likely target is 1210 as this has acted as support and resistance in the recent past. Also, this will test the top of the Head and Shoulders line.

S&P 500 EOD Elliott Wave Chart 5 Dec 2011

It might also consolidate in a sideways move and then move up from here. But as the MACD is still toppish, it has to come down near the zero line before moving up.

Alternate View

Alternate view is that this completes the Micro [2] of Subminuette iii. We can expected Micro [3] of Subminuette iii next. If indeed this is 3 of 3, then we should see a strong move downwards.

S&P 500 Fibonacci Confluence

The S&P 500 broke through the 1252 1255 and retested the band from the top side. The band held support. Quite bullish.

S&P 500 Daily Fibonacci Chart 5 Dec 2011

S&P 500 Volume

The volume was average again. Still consolidating in sideways move.

S&P 500 Daily Volume Chart 5 Dec 2011

S&P 500 EOD Review 2 Dec 2011

There was a reversal spike in the S&P 500. Most likely the run up being corrected. We have clear impulsive move up which means that S&P 500 is most likely in a short term upwards trend. According to my Primary count, the S&P 500 has just completed Subminuette i of Minute [y] and is now in Subminuette ii. The Minute [y] has a target of 1371.

S&P 500 EOD Elliott Wave Chart 2 Dec 2011

The possible targets for the correction are 1221 (38.2% retracement), 1210 (50% retracement) or 1197 (61.8% retracement). I think 61.8% is the likely target as the MACD is toppish and would need to go deep before another move up is possible.

Alternate View

The Alternate view is that this move up completes Micro [2] and Micro [3] is expected next. This count has a invalidation at 1277 (which is very near).

S&P 500 Fibonacci Confluence

The S&P 500 pierced the Fibonacci Confluence band at 1252 – 1254 but turned down from there. This is the second attempt to pierce this band.

S&P 500 Daily Fibonacci Chart 2 Dec 2011

S&P 500 Volume

The volume is average again and this means that it is consolidating at these region.

S&P 500 Daily Volume Chart 2 Dec 2011