S&P 500 EOD Review 23 Feb 2012

In yesterday’s post, I had anticipated the S&P 500 to head higher to 1362 and the market closed at 1363. But I had anticipated the market to move straight to 1362. Instead, it came down to 1352 before heading higher. Looking at the move, it looks likely that the market had move down in an impulsive wave with the final wave five panning out in an expanding triangle. The current move is an a-b-c correction which is labelled as wave 2. I’m expecting this move to go as higher as 1366 before heading down in wave 3. Target for wave 3 is 1341 (1.6 of 1).

S&P 500 EOD Elliott Wave Chart 23 Feb 2012

The move since early Feb 2012 is bounded by an expanding triangle. The recent move down is likely wave a of the wave d of the expanding triangle. This is shown in the below chart on Fibonacci Confluence

The alternate view is that the move down is an a-b-c correction and the market will head higher in an impulsive move. The first leg up is impulsive but the second leg is is rather weak. It could be that a 1-2-i-ii type of move is panning out.

S&P 500 Fibonacci Confluence

The S&P 500 closed just above the top of the current Fibonacci band. I don’t expect this to hold and the next move would be close to the bottom of the current Fibonacci band at 1338.

S&P 500 Daily Fibonacci Chart 23 Feb 2012

S&P 500 Volume and MACD

The volume is still light. The MACD that was turning down is turning down more profoundly.

S&P 500 Daily Volume Chart 23 Feb 2012

S&P 500 EOD Review 22 Feb 2012

The move on the hourly chart is looking like a sideways consolidation. The 2-minute chart though shows a much more information of the market move. This is the 2-minute chart of the S&P 500 which shows the stock market movement in a much more detailed view. Note that being a 2-minute chart the move looks a lot more dramatic than it actually is.

S&P 500 EOD Elliott Wave Chart 22 Feb 2012

I believe that we have the first five waves down and now the S&P 500 is correcting the move. I am expecting the correction to end around 1362 (A = B) and then head lower for the next five waves. It could also be that the correction has ended at 1360 and the S&P 500 will just head lower from here.

The alternate view is that the move down is an a-b-c correction and we can expect the market to head higher into 1370 region again.

S&P 500 Fibonacci Confluence

The S&P is still near the middle of the current Fibonacci Band.

S&P 500 Daily Fibonacci Chart 22 Feb 2012

S&P 500 Volume and MACD

The volume is light still. The MACD is turning down more and more. Note that the 100 D MA is going to cross the 200 D MA which is bullish.

S&P 500 Daily Volume Chart 22 Feb 2012

S&P 500 EOD Review 21 Feb 2012

The S&P 500 made another higher high at 1367 before heading lower in what looks like an impulsive move. It looks like waves 1-2-3-4 completed and 5 will get underway. It could also be just a corrective a-b-c which means that we’re likely to see another higher high.

The hourly MACD is still diverging with this peak at 1367.

S&P 500 EOD Elliott Wave Chart 21 Feb 2012

S&P 500 Fibonacci Confluence

The S&P 500 broke through the upper boundary of the current Fibonacci band at 1362 and came back down to close within band.

S&P 500 Daily Fibonacci Chart 21 Feb 2012

S&P 500 Volume and MACD

No change in the daily volume. The daily MACD is turning down but no major change in that as well.

S&P 500 Daily Volume Chart 21 Feb 2012