S&P 500 Elliott Wave Analysis 29 Feb 2012

It was another day of trading in a tight range. The S&P 500 moved higher at the beginning to reach 1378 before heading down to close 6.5 points lower. The divergence in the daily MACD continues on and the peak of 1378 formed another divergence. The hourly MACD has formed a contracting triangle and a move out of this triangle is expected soon.

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Analysis Chart 29 Feb 2012

S&P 500 Fibonacci Confluence

The S&P 500 has broken through the top of the current Fibonacci band at 1362 on 27 Feb and now it has come down to sit on top of the band. This is looking bullish as it could use this band to make an attempt at higher levels. The next Fibonacci retracement is at 1381.

S&P 500 Daily Fibonacci Chart 29 Feb 2012

S&P 500 Volume and MACD

The volume was higher than what was registered in the previous weeks. The daily MACD is still turning down. The 200 D MA is turning up slowly.

S&P 500 Daily Volume Chart 29 Feb 2012

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Analysis 28 Feb 2012

It was another largely lacklustre day with the S&P 500 moving in a tight range. A new peak has been registered at 1373. The main action though is in the hourly MACD. As I have mentioned this past week, the hourly MACD has been diverging downwards as each new peak is formed on the S&P 500. This has continued the past week in a more profound manner. The divergence is getting steeper and the MACD is trapped in a contracting triangle. Normally, a break out of a triangle would be a vigorous move. It could break to either upper or lower side. It is also normal for a throw over to happen. It would be interesting to monitor this move as it could give clues to the next possible move.

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Analysis Chart 28 Feb 2012

S&P 500 Fibonacci Confluence

The S&P 500 has cleared the Fibonacci band at 1338 – 1362. The next Fibonacci retracement target is at 1381.

S&P 500 Daily Fibonacci Chart 28 Feb 2012

S&P 500 Volume and MACD

The volume is continuing to be thin. The hourly MACD is still heading south.

S&P 500 Daily Volume Chart 28 Feb 2012

S&P 500 EOD Review 24 Feb 2012

The S&P 500 moved higher than expected and invalidated the previous downwards move that I had been following for the past few days. But the Ending Diagonal scenario is still valid. It is likely that the current leg of the Ending Diagonal is panning out in a flat correction rather than a zig-zag. After this leg which is expected to go as low as 1346 is over, the leg E is anticipated with a target of 1380 region. This market is really hard to track which is typical of corrections.

S&P 500 EOD Elliott Wave Chart 24 Feb 2012

S&P 500 Fibonacci Confluence

Once again the market broke the upper band at 1362 and closed above it.

S&P 500 Daily Fibonacci Chart 24 Feb 2012

S&P 500 Volume and MACD

No change in the volume, it is still light. The MACD is getting lower by the day.

S&P 500 Daily Volume Chart 24 Feb 2012