S&P 500 EOD Review 7 Dec 2011

The S&P seems to have chosen a sideways correction. It appears that a Expanding Triangle is panning out with the final e leg of the Triangle pending. That would complete Minuette (x) according to my count. Previously, this was thought to be Subminuette ii but normally Expanding Triangles appear in either waves 4, B or X and hence, it is very likely this is a X wave.

Also take a look at the MACD. I had mentioned the last few days that it is toppish and needs to come down before moving higher and the MACD has indeed came down and approaching the zero line. This setup is similar to the one we had with the Minuette (x) of the previous move up. This is highlighted in the ellipse.

If it breaks above the top line of the Expanding Triangle, there would be an Inverted Head and Shoulders formation with a target of 1371. Again this same number is coming up.

S&P 500 EOD Elliott Wave Chart 7 Dec 2011

Alternate View

Alternate view remains that this move up is Micro [2] but it is getting very close to getting invalidated.

S&P 500 Fibonacci Confluence

It appears that the S&P 500 has found support around the Fibonacci Confluence at 1252 – 1255.

S&P 500 Daily Fibonacci Chart 7 Dec 2011

S&P 500 Volume

The volume is still at average levels.

S&P 500 Daily Volume Chart 7 Dec 2011

S&P 500 EOD Review 28 Nov 2011

A rise on the S&P 500 of about 3% after more than a week of selling. This was expected as we had been anticipating Subminuette iv. The Primary Elliott Wave chart below depicts the move with details.

S&P500 EOD Elliott Wave Chart 28 Nov 2011

The wave so far is unfolding in an impulsive upwards move followed by a correction which looks like an Expanding Triangle. As expanding triangles occur primarily in either 4, B or X positions, we are most likely in Subminuette iv. The next move expected is another impulsive move upwards to 1205 – 1210 region. That would complete the Micro [C] of Subminuette iv. Thereafter, a selldown to complete Subminuette v will resume. Expected target for Subminuette v is 1135 (if v = i) or 1153 (target for the Triangle measured move).

S&P 500 Alternate View

The Alternate view is that the Minute [x] has ended and this is to be followed by Minute [w]. We are in early stages of Minute [w] with Micro [4] of Subminuette i in progress.

 S&P 500 Fibonacci Chart

The move up penetrated the Fibonacci Confluence band at 1184 – 1187 and came back down to test this band. The band now has turned as support. The S&P 500 then move higher from here before closing. This is bullish move. More upside is expected. The next band is at 1210

S&P 500 Daily Fibonacci Chart 28 Nov 2011

S&P 500 Volume

The volume is still weak and although the move is about 3% in price, the volume did not really come in to support. If there is no increase in volume soon, this move will not hold for long.

S&P 500 Daily Volume Chart 28 Nov 2011

S&P 500 EOD Review 23 Nov 2011

The S&P 500 headed lower still and came close to the target range of 1153 – 1159. It closed at 1162.31. Has the sell down ended? Has the market hit a short term bottom? Looking at the waves, I think that the S&P 500 has a few more points to go and would probably hit 1159 or even 1153 before turning up. That is 10 more points. This would mark the end of Subminuette iii (or Minute [x]). The next expected move is upwards with a target of 1205. That is the 38.2% retracement of Subminuette iii (from the current level). Another possible target is 1197 which is the top of the Micron[4].

S&P500 EOD Elliott Wave Chart 23 Nov 2011

There is a small divergence in the MACD as well.

Alternate View

The Alternate view is that this marks the end of Minute [x] and the next move is an upward move to begin Minute [y]. This up move would be the early phase of Minute [y] and for now, I’m labelling is as Minuette (w).

This upwards move will confirm which is the correct count. It would tell us whether to go with the Primary count or the Alternate view. Things to look for would be the character of the move. If it is choppy with a lot of a-b-a-b type of move, then the Primary count is the correct one. On the other hand, if it is impulsive with volume confirmation, that would indicate that the Alternate view is the correct one.

Volume

Volume is still not picking up which is raising a question on the probability of the Primary count.

S&P500 Daily Volume Chart 23 Nov 2011

Fibonacci Confluence

The S&P 500 came close to the next Fibonacci Confluence band and paused. Maybe it will touch the band in the next session before turning up. The next band is at 1152 – 1159.

S&P500 Fibonacci Daily Chart 23 Nov 2011