S&P 500 Elliott Wave Update 07 March 2012

The recovery is slow and weak compared to the impulsive wave that the stock market exhibited in the previous session. This is a clear confirmation that the stock market has turned down. The S&P 500 is likely in wave four at moment. One more leg down to complete Minuette (a) is expected.

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Analysis Chart 07 Mar 2012

The target for end of Minuette (a) is 1335. Thereafter, Minuette (b) is expected to bring the S&P 500 back to 1350 region. This would be followed by Minuette (c). There are two possible targets for Minuette (c). The first one is 1310 where wave (c) = wave (a) (bounded by the blue line of the contracting triangle). The second one is at 1290 where wave (c) = 1.6 x wave (a) (bounded by the red line of the alternate triangle). I am leaning towards 1290 at the moment but we need to watch 1310 as well.

S&P 500 Daily Elliott Wave Chart 07 Mar 2012

S&P 500 Fibonacci Confluence

The S&P 500 tried to move back up the Fibonacci Confluence Band and got turned down at 1352. The 1352 is a Fibonacci retracement that has turned from resistance to support previously. It looks like it has now changed back to resistance.

S&P 500 Daily Fibonacci Chart 07 Mar 2012

S&P 500 Volume and MACD

The volume is back to thin again. This is typical of waves four where consolidation is taking place. The MACD is continuing its pattern of turning down. It is clearly heading for the zero line.

 

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Analysis 05 March 2012

The important development is the move out of the triangle on the hourly MACD. It has also broken the zero line and moved below that. This could turn out to be a throw under before the market heads higher. The S&P 500 has registered a downward move which looks impulsive. It could also turn out to be a flat or zig-zag correction. The immediate target is 1350. If that breaks, the next target would be 1293.

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Analysis Chart 05 Mar 2012

The daily Elliott Wave Analysis Chart depicts the target of 1293. This move has also broken the red support line that has been holding since 29 Dec 2011. Another significant move.

S&P 500 Daily Elliott Wave Chart 05 Mar 2012

S&P 500 Fibonacci Confluence

This recent downwards wave has brought the Fibonacci back into the Fibonacci band at 1338 – 1362.

S&P 500 Daily Fibonacci Chart 05 Mar 2012

S&P 500 Volume and MACD

Volume is still light. The daily MACD is turning down more profoundly now.

S&P 500 Daily Volume Chart 05 Mar 2012

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Update 02 March 2012

The trading was again in a very tight range. It looks like a corrective wave. The stock market seems to pausing at this level before the next move. The hourly MACD is diverging clearly exhibiting the waning momentum. It is still trapped in the triangle. The move out of the triangle will likely take place early next week.

S&P 500 Elliott Wave Analysis Chart 02 Mar 2012

S&P 500 Fibonacci Confluence

The market continues to stay above the Fibonacci band at 1338 – 1362.

S&P 500 Daily Fibonacci Chart 02 Mar 2012

S&P 500 Volume and MACD

Volume is again very light. Daily MACD is still turning down. The daily MACD is also exhibiting waning momentum. The 200 D MA is moving up in a steady manner.

S&P 500 Daily Volume Chart 02 Mar 2012